A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
