Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
