🔗 Share this article

It was two months ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source of the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six games, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?

It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.

As per the data, in only two games has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus United.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.